A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
